Workshop: Probabilistic Design and Assessment for Offshore Wind Turbines
Offshore wind turbines and their support structures are traditionally designed with substantial safety margins to account for uncertainties in loads, material properties, models and inspections. Probabilistic design takes a different approach: it makes these uncertainties explicit and allows structures and components to be designed to an acceptable level of reliability rather than relying on conservatism alone.
During this two-day workshop, experts from Aalborg University and Vattenfall will explore the probabilistic principles underpinning the IEC 61400 series and how they can be applied in practice. Theory will be combined with illustrative examples and case discussions, including how monitoring data from operating wind farms can support structural assessments and decisions on lifetime extension.
The workshop is organised as part of DLC:X.X, a project involving Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Ghent University and Aalborg University. DLC:X.X aims to make offshore wind support structures more cost-effective without compromising reliability. The project combines probabilistic design with structural health monitoring and active load control to improve both the design and lifetime management of offshore wind structures.
Programme
The two-day programme combines the fundamentals of probabilistic reliability assessment with practical applications in offshore wind.
- Day 1 focuses on uncertainty modelling, reliability methods and risk-informed decision-making.
- Day 2 looks at how these principles can be applied to offshore wind turbines and support structures, from monitoring and digital twins to reassessment and lifetime extension.
👉 Check out the detailed programme
Day 1 – Uncertainty Modelling & Reliability in Decision-making
Speakers: Prof. John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Prof. Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen and Prof. Pablo G. Morato, Aalborg University
- Introduction
- Uncertainty modelling: strength, loads, lifetimes and model uncertainty
- Estimation of failure probability using FORM, SORM and simulation
- Design load cases in IEC 61400: probabilistic modelling
- Classical reliability of mechanical and electrical components
- System reliability, time-variant reliability and inverse FORM in IEC 61400
- Partial safety factor calibration and target reliability in IEC 61400 and DNV standards
- Risk analysis, predictive maintenance, monitoring and lifecycle decision-making
- Illustrative examples and case discussions throughout the day
Day 2 – Probabilistic Design and Assessment for Offshore Wind Turbines
Speakers: Michael Sandholm Jepsen, Vattenfall, and Prof. John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Aalborg University
Part I – From monitoring to risk-informed decision-making
Michael Sandholm Jepsen, Vattenfall
- Managing structural risk throughout the asset lifecycle
- From reactive to proactive asset management
- Establishing confidence in structural health monitoring and data-driven assessments
- Reducing uncertainty through monitoring, observations and operational experience
- Understanding actual structural performance through digital twins
- Structural reliability for risk-informed decision-making
- Reassessment, lifetime extension and fleet surveillance
- Closing the loop between design and operation
Part II – Probabilistic design and assessment
Prof. John Dalsgaard Sørensen, Aalborg University
- Background to partial safety factors in IEC 61400-1 Ed. 4
- Probabilistic design of wind turbines according to IEC 61400-1, IEC 61400-9 and IEC 61400-8
- Data-driven probabilistic assessment of existing offshore wind support structures
Practical information
The workshop is aimed at engineers and researchers working on offshore wind turbine design, structural reliability, monitoring and lifetime assessment. The workshop will be held in English.
The following participation fees apply:
- Consortium partners: free of charge
- IAB members: first participant free of charge; additional participants €650
- Blue Cluster members: €650
- Academic and research institutions: €200
- Other companies and organisations: €950
Interested in attending? Registration is not yet open, but you can fill in the interest form below. We will notify you as soon as registration opens.
For more information, download the workshop flyer. If you have any questions, feel free to contact Wout Weijtjens (VUB) or Fien De Muynck (Blue Cluster).
